This is the second article in my “State of the Mets” series. I’m going to assume that by reading this article, you’re already familiar with the context of this Mets season. It’s been horrible. I don’t really care to rehash all of that, because it doesn’t seem productive. Instead, I’d like to channel my negative emotions into something productive - breaking down the entire Mets roster, payroll, and where we stand before the 2026 trade deadline, which is an extremely pivotal point for this franchise and for Stearns’ tenure as GM. This article will be split into a few sections, and will focus on asset evaluation. At the bottom of each section will be my take on what I would do if I was in a decision-making position with the Mets. Some of these takes may age horribly, and that’s okay. I’m more concerned with detailing my process as a talent and asset evaluator.

The sections are as follows:

  1. Overview/Payroll
  2. Contracts we need to trade
  3. Contracts we could trade, depending on value
  4. The Phantom Zone (Bichette/Baty)
  5. Contracts we probably can’t trade (but should, if possible)
  6. The Core
  7. ARKPROCESS: Offseason, Free Agency, The Future

Let’s get right into it.

  1. OVERVIEW/PAYROLL

The Mets are in a bad spot in regards to payroll. I’m sure you’ve seen the numbers in a tweet somewhere, but I’ll remind you - the Mets have the 2nd highest payroll in baseball, estimated at a $366M payroll for 2026. This is actually an increase from 2025’s final estimate of $340M. I want to clearly establish some things before we get into individual assets in this article - money DOES matter. Some Mets fans seem to have this notion that because Steve Cohen is a billionaire, he’s going to pump all of this money into the team and we can spend as much as we want. This is both unrealistic and untrue. Billionaires, more than anybody, are extremely focused on asset management, their very philosophy and ethos towards the world has been shaped by decades of learning how to accrue as much as value as possible. Billionaires don’t want to lose money. There is not a single MLB franchise that’s being run at a deficit, every single team is making more revenue than they are spending on payroll. This is the reality of sports economics, especially a sport without a salary cap (that hopefully remains this way, because it allows baseball to be a fascinating microcosmic economic model for a capitalistic world - but I digress). We have a finite amount of money. I don’t have access to the team’s finances, so I don’t know what that exact number is, but I know that there’s an upper bound. Based on the current luxury tax format and what I’ve heard from Stearns/Cohen, the rule of thumb I’m going to follow is that Cohen is willing to spend into the luxury tax for a contending team.

The Mets roster, as currently constructed, is not a contending team. I’m going to get into this much later in the article, as well as in every “ARKPROCESS” section of each “chapter” of this article, but I don’t believe this year is “bad luck”. Luck and variance are inevitable aspects of sports, baseball isn’t played on paper, but I fundamentally believe the process behind many of the Mets decisions in the offseason were flawed (see my last “State of the Mets” article for more on this). I’m not going to try to find who to blame for this, because I think the truth is probably a lot more complicated than people realize, but the decision-making process for the Mets didn’t and doesn’t make sense. The key example of this is paying $42m AAV for Bo Bichette. The issue isn’t the price - it’s an overpay that I personally disagree with, but it can be justified. What can’t be justified is the decision to keep Brett Baty around after signing Bichette to that contract. Baty had already proven through 2024/2025 that the most productive MLB role for him was a Ryan McMahon-type defensive specialist at third base, and signing Bichette to play 3B for the considerable future nullifies his ability to produce 2+ WAR like he did in 2025. The Mets have constructed a roster wrought with overpaid contracts, limited positional flexibility, limited platoon advantages, and few players in their ideal role. This is not conductive to building a contending baseball team, no matter how much money you have. When you make mistakes like this, you lose the ability to have “bad luck” that won’t kill your season.

I talked about all of this a lot in my last article, so I’ll limit discussing it more here and instead turn towards the subject of this article, the CURRENT State of the Mets. We’re in this situation and we need to get out of it.

By my calculations, assuming the Mets make 0 moves at the trade deadline, we will still free up $92.52m via expiring contracts, dead contracts, and other payments clearing our books. This is assuming Luis Robert Jr.’s $20m club option isn’t accepted by the mets (it won’t be) and Clay Holmes doesn’t opt into $12m player option (he won’t).

~$93m is actually a lot of money, but we can clear even more this trade deadline if desired. My ethos towards this trade deadline is based around replenishing our extremely depleted farm system. The Mets farm is in a really bad place and we need prospects back now, lest we run into significant roster construction issues down the line due to a lack of pre-arbitration/arbitration players. The goal of my trade deadline / offseason is to fix the farm system, get off as many bad contracts as possible, and retool/rebuild the Mets into a position where we’re primed to contend in Soto’s prime. There are two schools of thought - we can either retool and aim for contention in 2027, or we can rebuild fully and aim to contend in 2029. Stearns has already said that the Mets are aiming to contend in 2027, so I won’t entertain the 2029 rebuild idea, even though I think it has a lot of merit. We’re committing to contending in 2027, so that will be the target of the traded deadline and my offseason plans.

With all of that being said, let’s move into individual asset/contract evaluations.

  1. CONTRACTS WE NEED TO TRADE

We need to trade every single player on an expiring contract that we can. Full stop. We aren’t contending this year and there’s no point in keeping players around that will enter free agency next year.

CF-R Luis Robert Jr. (club option)
Luis Robert Jr. is 29y/o and being paid $20m this season, with a club option for $20m next year for 2027. I shouldn’t need to say this, but it would be a mistake for the Mets to take this club option. Robert Jr. hasn’t recorded more than 1.3 WAR since 2023, he’s often injured, and he’s only recorded 0.2 WAR so far this season.

This allows us (and prospective teams looking for an outfielder with a right-hand bat) to essentially view Luis Robert Jr. as an expiring contract. Trade partners will likely be somewhat wary of Robert’s injury history, but I still think he can return value.

Some have described the Luis Robert Jr. trade as a “disaster” or as a “horrible move by Stearns”, but I fundamentally disagree with them. This is an expiring contract that we traded barely anything for, and Luis Robert Jr. was an enticing lottery ticket who could’ve feasibly returned value this year AND on his club option if everything fell the right way. It didn’t, and that’s okay. Risk is a part of decision-making. This was a good risk to take and an extremely defensible move in terms of process.

Anyway, with all of that being said, we should be able to trade Luis Robert Jr. to a team in need of outfield help and/or a right-handed bat. Robert Jr. has a 95 wRC+ this season and is about average in terms of outfield defense. He’s pretty much a perfectly average outfielder on an expiring contract. That should be able to return a lower-ranked prospect of some value.

SP-R Clay Holmes (player option)
Clay Holmes has been a terrific success story for the Mets as a reliever->starter conversion, and represents one of Stearns’ best moves as Mets GM. The value of Holmes is that we paid him ~$13m AAV and converted him to a starter, where he provided starter production for nearly HALF the price of a starter like him on the market. That’s really good “pitcher alchemy” and something that is very important for winning. That being said, Holmes has a player option for next year at $12m, and there’s basically no chance he takes it. Holmes would undeniably fetch more in free agency.

Holmes is 33y/o and has produced 1.2 WAR this season over 52.2 IP, and will be healthy again at some point this season to pitch again. 3.22 FIP / 3.71 xFIP are great marks for a starter.

Holmes should be traded and will net us a prospect of some value.

RP-L A.J. Minter (expiring)
A.J. Minter is a 32y/o left-handed reliever who’s posted a 4.12 xFIP this season, albeit with better-looking surface stats. His left-handedness is key for a lot of teams seeking a left-handed reliever at the deadline. Minter is being paid $11m AAV this season and is a free agent next season. This one is pretty simple! He’s expiring and he has value. Relievers see their value surge every trade deadline, especially LHP, and Minter’s underlying stats are fine. They aren’t great, but they’re fine, and the “surface” stats look a lot better than the underlying ones. You trade him and get back something of value.

RP-L Brooks Raley (expiring)
Brooks Raley is a 38y/o left-handed reliever being paid $4.75m this season and is a free agent next season. You can basically just re-use the Minter section for this. Raley has recorded a 4.15 xFIP and 0.7 WAR so far this season, and, just like Minter, his position as a LHP is likely to entice teams at the deadline. Both should return value.

SP-R Freddy Peralta (expiring)
I am not going to talk about how disappointing the Peralta trade has been or how I would’ve preferred Cease or whatever. It happened, it sucked, let’s move on. Peralta is a 30y/o right-handed SP being paid only $8m this season and is a free agent next season. This one is also extremely obvious, but the return is a little more interesting.

Peralta has produced 1.2 WAR this season despite his struggles, and the underlying stats are (marginally) better than the surface stats. They aren’t GOOD, but they indicate he should be a Fine starter, rather than a bad one (4.29 xFIP vs. 4.47 FIP). Peralta’s contract is also extremely cheap and he’s a starting pitcher at the trade deadline. I think you can get a real prospect here.

OF-R Tyrone Taylor (expiring)
Tyrone Taylor has been red-hot at the plate since returning from the plate and is really the perfect utility outfielder for any contending team. Taylor is only being paid $3.8m under arbitration this season and is a free agent next season. Taylor is 32y/o and has recorded a 108 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR this season (limited due to injury), but the wRC+ and his surge since returning from injury is likely to entice teams. We can probably get back a prospect of some value for him!

ARKPROCESS
Trade all of them. This section is easy. We’re a team far out of contention and all of these contracts are effectively expiring. There is no reason to not get value back for all of them.

As far as free agency goes, I’m actually interested in some of these guys as free agents, but regardless, it still makes sense to trade them at the deadline and get value back. We can worry about bringing them back later.

I already covered the amount of money that we’ll save from these players expiring, so I won’t reiterate it here.

  1. CONTRACTS WE COULD TRADE (AND WHAT I WOULD DO)

I want to note before getting into this section that I’m not necessarily advocating for trading all of these contracts, or any of them, for that matter. I simply want to point out that these contracts have value and would provide a tangible return if traded.

RP-R Luke Weaver ($11m AAV through 2027)
I think there’s a real argument for keeping Luke Weaver if we’re trying to contend in 2027, but I acknowledge that this one entirely depends on what the return for him could be at this trade deadline. This is the highest his value will ever be, he’s pitched extremely well this season (2.92 FIP - 3.60 xFIP, 1.0 WAR through 42 IP) and he has another year of very cheap control considering his production. It’s really hard to make a call without seeing the actual packages the Mets are being offered, but as far as I’m concerned, if we’re looking to contend in 2027, you should probably keep Weaver unless we get a really good prospect. Weaver is our best asset at this trade deadline, but I think that his value to the Mets next season is (probably) more valuable than whatever we’ll get back. I reserve the right to change my opinion on this depending on what the trade package is if we do trade him.

SS-S Francisco Lindor ($31.9m AAV through 2031)
I would not trade Francisco Lindor unless the return was right, and by right, I mean a top prospect. Lindor is unbelievably underrated by both the public and Mets fans, and a down year doesn’t change that. Lindor’s struggles this year are something that I’m okay with chalking up to injuries, as he’s only 32 years old, is still a plus defender at the premium position of shortstop, and has still recorded a below-average, but not horrible 94 wRC+ so far this season. Across Lindor’s past four seasons with the Mets, he’s recorded a total of 25.9 WAR (6.5 WAR / season) with a wRC+ of 128. This isn’t just a good player, this is an elite player at a premium position. The ONLY way it makes sense to trade Lindor is if you get a premium SS prospect back, and I don’t see those trade partners (Red Sox - Arias, Brewers - Made, Athletics - de Vries, Yankees - Lombard Jr.) making that trade. In regards to that hypothetical trade, it COULD work for the Mets, as the backend of Lindor’s deal through 2031, where he’ll be 37 years old is unlikely to return positive surplus value for the Mets. That being said, since we’re seeking to contend in 2027, this is kind of a moot point. There are few shortstops in the entirety of baseball who consistently record 6+ WAR per season, and I fail to believe that an injury-marred season for Lindor is indicative of some steep falloff/decline when he’s just 32y/o and still playing terrific defense at SS. $31.9m AAV for a player of his caliber is arguably, STILL, an underpay.

C-R Francisco Alvarez (under arbitration through 2029)
Alvarez is interesting because he’d likely be the top catcher on the market if Hunter Goodman doesn’t get traded. Alvarez has 3.5 years of team control left under arbitration and is only 24y/o. Alvarez’s time with the Mets has really been defined by injuries, but when healthy in 2023, he recorded 3.0 WAR, even with a below-average wRC+ of 96. Across 2024/2025, he’s recorded 3.7 (1.9 WAR / season) and 113 wRC+. He’s recorded 1.4 WAR so far this season with a wRC+ of 117. This is a productive player at a premium position and would likely return premium value. I think there IS an argument to trading Alvarez, but I personally wouldn’t do it. He’s an above-average bat and is an average to above-average defender at catcher, and the only real question with him is health. I think that you could (and probably should) play him at 1B/DH more than we do in order to keep him healthier and take advantage of his bat, but I wouldn’t trade an asset like this, especially when there’s really only one good catcher on the open market next season (Ryan Jeffers). If we are going to trade Alvarez, we have to sign Jeffers in free agency, and that puts us into a really scary position that’s very dependent on a free agent choosing to sign with us, and EVEN if that does happen, there’s no guarantee that Jeffers produces more surplus value than Alvarez, who has been productive when healthy. I just don’t think it makes sense unless the Mets are absolutely blown away by a trade package.

RP-R Devin Williams ($17m AAV through 2028)
Devin Williams is a 31y/o right-handed reliever who has been genuinely good this season, with a 3.36 xFIP and 0.7 WAR recorded through 34.2 IP. $17m AAV is a bit high for a reliever, but I don’t think this is an egregious overpay for any team to take on, especially considering he has pretty elite stats across his entire career, with a 2.76 career xFIP. I don’t think it makes sense to trade Williams if we’re aiming to contend in 2027, and I don’t think we’d get the appropriate value back if we did try to trade him. Williams’ numbers this year are definitely a dropoff from his career highs, but his ERA is very inflated above his FIP/xERA/xFIP, and I think that unless you think he’s “not suited for New York”, we should probably keep him. I don’t know if he’ll be the closer we paid him to be, but this contract really isn’t that bad, and Williams could still live up to the price tag.

RHP-R Reed Garrett (under arbitration through 2029)
Someone told me that Reed Garrett has “no value”, and this is categorically untrue. Reed Garrett is under arbitration through 2029 and was a terrific reliever in 2024/2025, both by surface stats and by underlying metrics. He’s effectively untradeable because he’s rehabbing from injury, so trading him doesn’t really make sense, but I want to be very clear here - Reed Garrett is a good bullpen piece and we should keep him. There’s no point in trading him this deadline, both because he’s going to be good for us in the future and because his value is severely diminished due to injury.

RHP-R Huascar Brazobán (under arbitration through 2029)
Huascar Brazobán is a 36y/o right-handed reliever who is under arbitration through 2029. He’s been a good reliever this season, recording 0.8 WAR with a 3.78 xFIP (3.43 FIP) across 50.0 IP. In contrast to Garrett, I actually do think there’s merit to trading Brazobán, mostly due to his age. Brazobán will be 37y/o next season, and 39y/o by the end of his arbitration, and there’s real risk of him falling off steeply. It wouldn’t be the end of the world because he’s under arbitration, but in my opinion, you can get more value for him by trading him here than you’ll get on the rest of his arbitration contract, mostly due to his age and some volatility in his profile.

RHP Tobias Myers (under arbitration through 2030)
Myers was acquired alongside Peralta in the Mets-Brewers offseason trade and he’s been really bad for us through 46 IP - 4.62 xFIP (5.07 FIP), -0.1 WAR. That being said, he’s only 27y/o, and he’s under arbitration through 2030. I would trade him for pretty much anything, because I don’t see a role for him here in New York and I’d be surprised if a team isn’t willing to give up a flier prospect for him, considering he put up 2.1 WAR in 2024. Don’t expect much back, but I would trade Myers.

1B/DH-L Jared Young (under arbitration through 2031)
Jared Young was a very good signing for the Mets. He’s under arbitration through 2031 and has produced 113 wRC+ / 0.7 WAR this season through 178 PA, which is actually very good! On a contending team, Young profiles well as a LHB 1B/DH against RHP and a bench bat otherwise who can provide key platoon advantages as a pinch hitter. The thing about this role is that you really only need one of these guys, as you don’t want your bench filled with players with limited positional flexibility. Young is actually an average baserunner (0.6 BsR this season, -0.1 in 2025) and I really like him as a bench bat (and maybe as a spot starter against RHP). As I mentioned before, he’s under team control for the next 5.5 years. Young likely has value, and I wouldn’t be THAT opposed to a trade, but the price has to be right. This is a pretty valuable piece to have, and because we’re aiming to contend in 2027, it just doesn’t make sense to me to trade him here. This kind of role player production isn’t going to be replaceable in free agency without paying significantly more money, and I don’t see why we’d do that instead of just sticking with Young, who’s been great in his role.

OF-L MJ Melendez (under arbitration through 2028)
Melendez is a 27y/o corner outfielder LHB who is a below-average fielder. He recorded a 92 wRC+ this season through 144 PA, which is fine, but this is definitely a bench bat profile. I would like to shop Melendez at the deadline, as a LHB who’s only slightly below average as a fielder and hitter is probably somewhat valuable as a bench bat to SOMEONE, but don’t expect much back, probably a true unknown prospect.

ARKPROCESS
We are aiming to contend in 2027, and because of this, I fundamentally don’t think it makes sense to trade Lindor or Alvarez. Garrett has real value and is currently rehabbing an injury, so it doesn’t make sense to trade him at low value (and I think he’ll provide a lot of value while he’s under arbitration). I would trade Brazobán due to his age and Myers because of his struggles, and I think both would provide value in the form of lottery-ticket prospects, likely at the DSL/CPX level. Trades like this can end up paying dividends in the future, specifically when our farm system is as depleted as it is. In short:

Try to trade: Brazobán, Myers, Melendez
Don’t trade (unless it’s a significant overpay): Lindor, Alvarez, Brazobán, Young, Williams, Weaver

Clearing the Brazobán/Myers/Melendez arbitration contracts saves another $3.4m AAV, which isn’t much, but I want to keep track of it anyway.

  1. The Phantom Zone (Baty/Bichette)

3B-R Bo Bichette ($42m AAV through 2028, player options in 2027/2028, $5m buyout)
This contract MIGHT, MAYBE be tradeable, due to a buyout clause that allows the contract holding team to pay an extra $10m to Bichette to buy out the player options on his contract for 2027/2028. Bichette is being paid $42m AAV across this contract, and, like I said in my last article, this is a pretty bad contract. Bichette is NOT a bad player, but this is a lot of money.

Bichette is 28y/o and had a career year in 2025, where he recorded 3.8 WAR and 134 wRC+. He’s recorded 4+ WAR twice, once in 2021 and once in 2022. I, personally, don’t think this profile is worthy of $42m AAV, even though I like Bichette as a player. For that reason, I think trying to trade Bichette this deadline could be prudent. If we don’t trade him this deadline, I honestly think that paying the $10m to buy him out for 2027/2028 makes sense. Bichette will be making a total of $84m across those 2 years, and we’d effectively save $74m ($37m AAV) by buying him out here. This isn’t the way I think anyone wanted or expected his Mets tenure to go, but I think that adding the buyout clause is going to save the Mets here. I don’t want to be paying Bichette $42m AAV for the next 2 years, and, regardless of whether he gets bought out or traded, I don’t think he should be on the roster next year. I think that Bichette could return a legitimate prospect because of the buyout clause if he’s traded this deadline.

3B-L Brett Baty (under arbitration through 2029)
The Mets fanbase hates Brett Baty, and I understand the frustration, but it really isn’t his fault. Baty has not even come close to living up to his prospect pedigree, but he produced 2.3 WAR last season in the one role that he’s valuable in - defensive 3B (Ryan McMahon comp). Baty has been a plus defender at 3B across 2024/2025, so I think it’s sustainable to expect his defense to stay at that level (2.3 Def in 2024, 2.2 Def in 2025, 4 DRS in 2025!).

What Baty is NOT is a utility player. He has been outright horrible at other positions and it’s ridiculous to put him in that role. He’s been terrible this season because we’re putting him in the wrong role. I don’t expect the bat to ever be good (or even above average), but if he can maintain a wRC+ above his career average of 85, he’s going to produce more than 2+ WAR at third base, which is more than enough for me to want to keep him if we follow through on the plan of trading/buying out Bichette.

ARKPROCESS
If you are going to keep Bichette, trade Baty. If you are going to trade/buyout Bichette, keep Baty. It’s really that simple and we should have figured this out in the offseason, but it’s not too late to right the mistake.

Money Saved (if trade Bichette): $42m AAV
Money Saved (if buyout Bichette): $37m AAV
Money Saved (if trade Baty): $0.8m AAV

I personally think the most realistic thing to expect is that we buyout Bichette, but I think a trade could be in play if the Mets are appropriately aggressive in shopping him. Regardless of whether he’s traded or bought out, I would have Bichette off the roster by next season, and I would keep Baty to play third base. If he can produce 2+ WAR while under arbitration, he’s providing significant surplus value for the Mets, which will allow us to spend big at other positions. Getting rid of arbitration players for no value is almost always a mistake unless they have no real MLB role, and Baty has a clear role.

  1. Contracts we probably can’t trade

This section is marred with the contracts that I discussed in my last article. None of these contracts are expiring and all of them are pretty much immovable at this deadline. I, personally, would be willing to pay down these contracts, but Stearns has already said we’re not doing that, so I’ll move past the suggestion. SOME of these contracts MIGHT be moveable in the offseason, since some of them are expiring at the end of 2027.

RHP Tylor Megill (arbitration through 2027)
Megill is injured and no one is going to trade for him. We should absolutely consider trading him in the offseason, as he expires following the 2027, and his metrics in 2024/2025 are pretty serviceable (1.9 WAR / 3.76 xFIP across 146.1 IP). I’ll come back to the idea of a Megill trade in the offseason section.

SP-R Kodai Senga ($14m AAV through 2027, club option in 2028)
Kodai Senga is a 33y/o starting pitcher who has fallen off a cliff since the highs of his 2023 campaign due to injury (?), recording -0.7 WAR and an xFIP of 5.10 through 40.2 IP this season. His walk rate has ballooned significantly since 2023 and I don’t think this is something that’s going to be reversible, especially not as a starter. Senga’s stats in 2025 were better than this year (4.35 xFIP), but he still wasn’t a good starting pitcher and the underlying metrics suggest that his 3.02 ERA was somewhat lucky. I’m following the trend I see in 2025/2026 following injury and stating that Senga’s contract is not good at this point in time, and I really don’t see any team trading for him for the price of his current contract. I think that Senga isn’t moveable.

All of that being said, I think that Senga could possibly succeed in a bullpen role still, in a role similar to the Yankees’ Fernando Cruz, using his ghost forkball where Cruz uses his devastating splitter. He’ll need to tweak his pitch mix and adjust over the 2026-27 offseason to get suited for this role, where I think he’ll at least be more productive than he’s been this season. Because Senga is expiring at the end of 2027, we could possibly trade him this offseason, but I don’t know if we’d be able to.

SP-L Sean Manaea ($25m AAV through 2027)
In a similar vein to Senga, Manaea has really collapsed this season. Manaea wasn’t as bad as the numbers suggest last year (4.39 FIP - 3.30 xFIP), but regardless, the results weren’t there in 2025. This year in 2026, his xFIP is down to a 4.20, his FIP sits at 4.27, and he’s recorded 0.6 WAR. This isn’t a bad player, but it’s certainly not worth $25m AAV, and no team is going to take on this contract. Similar to Senga, because this is expiring at the end of 2027, we could possibly trade him this offseason.

2B-R Marcus Semien ($24m AAV through 2028)
This is probably the worst contract on the books for us, but that’s to be expected, considering we acquired it as a part of swapping an equally (depending on who you ask) bad contract in the Brandon Nimmo contract. Semien is 35y/o and will be 38y/o by the time his contract finally expires in 2029. This is not a moveable contract without taking on a significant amount of the money. Semien has recorded a -0.5 WAR with a wRC+ of 69 this season, and even more concerningly, he’s returning negative defensive value at 2B (-3.8). Hopefully Semien isn’t THIS bad in the future, because we’re stuck with him for the next 2 years. We might have to move him into a weak-side DH platoon with Jared Young, which is really bad, considering we’re paying him $24m AAV. Sigh.

1B/DH-S Jorge Polanco ($20m AAV through 2027)
Polanco signed to the same length as Murakami/O’Hearn for more money ($20m AAV vs $17m and $14m, respectively) and has fallen off a cliff compared to his breakout year last season. Nobody is going to take this contract at the deadline. Again, similar to Manaea/Senga, this might be tradeable in the offseason since he’ll be expiring. I genuinely don’t want to get into Polanco’s stats, because they’re truly horrible, but the worst issue for me here is how avoidable this was. I also want to note that Jared Young is better in Polanco’s role than he is.

I hear you. “Post Polanco’s stats so I don’t have to look them up!”. Fine. -0.9 WAR, 22 wRC+ (good lord) through only 101 PA. He hasn’t been a positive player in any aspect of baseball.

ARKPROCESS
Try really hard to trade Polanco, Senga, Manaea, Megill in the offseason, as they’ll all be expiring deals and we could save a SIGNIFICANT amount of money to use on free agents.

  1. The Core

I’ll save the analysis of the whole team and the money we’ll have available for the next section. This section is going to be very brief and freeform, as the intent is simply to go over the core of the team. I’ll include the players that I’ve decided to keep from the previous sections.

LF-L Juan Soto ($51m AAV through 2039)
I want to note that the shift to 1B/DH is coming for him soon, as he’s at -8.1 Def already this season in the outfield. One of the best hitters in baseball and the core of the team at age 27.

SP-R Nolan McLean (under arbitration through 2031)
Terrific 25y/o SP who could be a frontend starter longterm.

SP-R Christian Scott (under arbitration through 2030)
27y/o SP who had significant relief risk and seems to have stifled that conversation, Scott has been good for us this season with a 3.69 FIP - 3.85 xFIP and has recorded 1.2 WAR through 63.1 IP. I like Scott a lot, he profiles well as a mid-backend rotation piece for us, and young, controllable pitching is always terrific to have.

RF-L Carson Benge (under arbitration through 2031)
23y/o RF who has been terrific as a rookie. 1.5 WAR / 101 wRC+ through 421 PA thus far this season, Benge is a great building block for this team and is controllable for cheap through 2031. He’s great!

CF-L A.J. Ewing (under arbitration through 2032)
22y/o CF who has been a great rookie for us. 1.3 WAR / 112 wRC+ through 265 PA thus far this season, Ewing is (also) a great building block for this team and is controllable for cheap through 2032. I don’t have much else to say, Ewing has been great.

C-R Luis Torrens ($4.8m AAV through 2028)
I really like us buying out an arbitration year from 30y/o Luis Torrens and extending him through 2028, he’s a terrific defensive catcher and a key bench piece for us. 1.1 WAR / 72 wRC+ through 192 PA this season with an incredible 10.7 Def. I really like this extension, provides us with key depth at a key position.

Assets I want to keep (writeups in previous sections):
SS-S Francisco Lindor ($34.1 AAV through 2031)
RP-R Devin Williams ($17m AAV through 2028)
RP-R Luke Weaver ($11m AAV through 2027)
C-R Francisco Alvarez (under arbitration through 2029)
3B-L Brett Baty (udner arbitration through 2029)
RP-R Reed Garrett (under arbitration through 2029)
1B/DH-L Jared Young (under arbitration through 2031)

Contracts we’re stuck with (writeups in previous sections):
SP-L Sean Manaea ($25m AAV through 2027)
2B-R Marcus Semien ($24m AAV through 2028)
1B/DH-S Jorge Polanco ($20m AAV through 2027)
SP-R Kodai Senga ($14m AAV through 2027, club option in 2028)
RHP Tylor Megill (arbitration through 2027)

Key Prospects:
SP-L Zac Thornton
He’s not technically pre-arbitration yet, but he will be soon. Thornton is a 24y/o SP who’s vastly outproducing his expected stats (2.98 FIP - 4.20 xFIP) and has recorded 0.6 WAR this season through 23.1 IP. That being said, he’s a young controllable pitcher and a LHP, so I think having Thornton as a backend starter is great!

3B-R Elian Peña
18y/o in Single-A. Playing pretty well this season. Listed as 3B because he really doesn’t profile well at SS.

LHP Jonathan Santucci
23y/o recently promoted to AAA. Has been good this season. My PROSPX tool on http://eephus.io flags him as a breakout.

SS-L Wandy Asigen
16y/o shortstop prospect currently in the DSL that we absolutely stole from the Yankees in IFA this year. Has been playing well at the DSL, but limited sample size, as he started the year injured. Easily the highest upside prospect in the entire season.

RHP Jonah Tong
23y/o pitching prospect who was decent across a limited sample size in 2025 and has REALLY struggled this year at AAA. I think he could be a really good reliever, but starting might be out of the picture for him at this point due to his pitch mix.

  1. ARKPROCESS: Offseason, Free Agency, The Future

So, a brief summary of what I want us to do at the trade deadline.

Need to trade
CF-R Luis Robert Jr.
SP-R Freddy Peralta
SP-R Clay Holmes
RP-L AJ Minter
RP-L Brooks Raley
OF-R Tyrone Taylor

Should trade
RP-R Huascar Brazobán
RHP Tobias Myers
OF-L MJ Melendez

Keep (unless significant overpay)
RP-R Reed Garrett
SS-S Francisco Lindor
C-R Francisco Alvarez
3B-L Brett Baty
RP-R Devin Williams
RP-R Luke Weaver
1B/DH-L Jared Young

Trade/Buyout in Offseason
3B Bo Bichette

So, that’s where I’m at. If we execute this as I’d like, we’ll have $132.92m AAV for free agency. I’m going to treat this money as a “hard budget” for us, since I don’t know the exact number that Cohen is willing to go above it.

Trade before 2027 (if possible)
These are the contracts that expire at the end of 2027. I’m going to assume we can’t/don’t move them, but I’m going to list them here, because we might be able to.

RHP Tylor Megill (injured)
SP-R Kodai Senga (move him to bullpen)
SP-L Sean Manaea
1B/DH-S Jorge Polanco

So, with all of that in mind, here’s the projected team for 2027, before free agency additions.

2027 Projected Roster, Pre Free Agency
C-R Francisco Alvarez
1B-L Jared Young
2B-R Marcus Semien
SS-S Francisco Lindor
3B-L Brett Baty
LF-L Juan Soto
CF-L AJ Ewing
RF-L Carson Benge
DH-S Jorge Polanco

Bn/C-R Luis Torrens

SP-R Nolan McLean
SP-R Christian Scott
SP-L Zac Thornton
SP-L Sean Manaea

RP-R Reed Garrett
RP-R Devin Williams
RP-R Luke Weaver
RP-R Kodai Senga

There are some interesting players in free agency that we could target, but this is a fruitless exercise before we know exactly how the Trade Deadline shakes out, so I’ll save it for my next article, later in the season. The key part is this: We’ll have ~$133m to spend in free agency and we’ll have the assets from trading the aforementioned players to hopefully help the farm system. Additionally, if the Mets keep losing, we’ll get better lottery odds for the 2027 MLB Draft, which could net us a really important prospect for our future. We currently have the #4 odds in the lottery.

Thank you so much for reading my article, and I hope you enjoyed. Please check out my website http://eephus.io for detailed prospect analysis and MLB projections, I’ve been working hard on it across the last few months and I’ve really appreciated all of the support. I’ll see you after the Trade Deadline!